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Opening range breakout backtest on 16 years of E-mini S&P 500 futures minute bars, and a test of whether the first 30 minutes really sets the day. Across 3,977 complete regular-hours sessions of ES from September 2010 to September 2026, the session high or low prints inside the first 30 minutes 53.58% of the time. That sounds like folklore confirming itself, so we tested it properly: take each session's own 390 one-minute returns, shuffle the order 200 times, rebuild the day and score the exact
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TikTokquantpad
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